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| FISCAL POLICY | |
| Title | Brief Summary |
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State government budget
cuts have severely affected the national economy. Only three years ago state
spending was still a large plus for the U.S. Economy, providing jobs and
income during a period of declining private spending. Now, somewhere between
$20 and $40 billion in state cuts have placed additional burdens on an already
sluggish economy. (Updated August 27, 2003) |
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President Bush has requested
a tax cut of $$726 billion over the next ten years. In this highly partisan
issue, it appears that the actual tax cut is more likely to be in the area
of $350 billion. With an election year nearing, the political climate for
a tax cut is favorable, but the final size of the cut and associated reduction
in spending is still up for debate. The areas of reducing taxes on dividends
and capital gains, a high priority for President Bush, have been highly
contested. (Updated June 2, 2003) |
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Many, especially in the
Democratic Party, argue that too much of the Bush tax cuts have gone to
the wealthy and prudent economic policy should focus on putting more money
into lower- and middle-class families. In addition to the issue of equity,
arguments over the appropriate distribution of taxes consider its impact
on economic growth. (Updated April 3, 2003) |
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President Bush is expected
to propose lower taxes for corporate dividends, an acceleration of scheduled
tax cuts, and more generous depreciation write-offs for corporations. Democrats
have a different agenda, calling for greater tax relief for the poor and
middle class. (Updated February 5, 2003) |
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There were three significant
economic events during the week of November 4th that will affect the nation's
economy: Republicans gained control of Congress; the Fed cut interest rates
one-half percent; and new economic data showed growth accelerating to an
annual rate of 4% in the third quarter. (Updated January 2, 2003) |
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Future changes in budget
deficit or surplus depend on benefit levels of federal programs and on tax
collections. It is estimated the current value of these commitments to be
$20 trillion in excess of projected revenues. (Updated January 2, 2003) |
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Unlike the federal government
that can¾and sometimes should¾run budget deficits, states
are by law prohibited from doing so, but the economic downturn that started
in March 2000 has wreaked havoc on the finances of states that are now facing
huge deficits. (Updated December 16, 2002) |
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The Bush Administration
has proposed a $30 billion relief package for Brazil, but there has been
no reconsideration of our position towards Argentina. (Updated September 1, 2002) |
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The prospects for the
travel industry are uncertain. However, industry gurus have made predictions
for the air travel, cruising, and lodging markets. (Updated January 15, 2002) |
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The weakness of the
U.S. economy has prompted the President and some Republican leaders to suggest
additional tax cuts to stimulate the economy, such as reducing corporate
income tax rates and cutting the capital gains tax. Neither Alan Greenspan
nor Robert E. Rubin is in favor of these proposals, saying they would not
provide the needed stimulus in a timely manner. (Updated November 1, 2001) |
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Three years of a growing
surplus and projections of a continuing inflow of funds could provide for
tax cuts, increased spending, as well as funds for Social Security and Medicare.
But then the economy slowed, the stock market fell, President Bush implemented
his tax cut, and the projections of big surpluses are gone. (Updated August 1, 2001) |
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Economic growth this
past quarter was a modest 2 percent. The growth in GDP was twice the rate
that forecasters had predicted, and was the result of continuing strength
in consumer spending. (Updated June 1, 2001) |
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President Bush unveiled
a $2 trillion federal budget that offers modest changes to governmental
programs, deferring potentially more dramatic shifts in public spending
to next year. (Updated May 1, 2001) |
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President Bush and
leaders from 33 Western Hemisphere countries gathered in Quebec to discuss
a proposal for the establishment of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA).
Free trade, it is argued, increases the flow of goods, people and ideas. (Updated May 1, 2001) |
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There was some discussion
a few months ago as to the 'new' economy being recession-proof. Those conversations
have been silenced as new data provide evidence of a slowdown and perhaps
recession. (Updated May 1, 2001) |
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President Bush's proposed
tax cut plan has generated considerable discussion among economists. Whether
the economy would be better off spending the surplus or returning it to
the taxpayers will be debated more intensely in coming months. (Updated April 1, 2001) |
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Many were skeptical
of the need for Bush's $1.6 trillion tax cut, while others believed that
a tax cut of that magnitude would stimulate an economy that the Fed is trying
to dampen. The slowing economy has changed both individual and political
opinion and a compromise between Democrats and Republicans regarding a tax
cut seems more likely. (Updated February 1, 2001) |
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There is a mounting
body of evidence that the economy is slowing. Will the economic descent
be gradual or has the economy fallen so far so fast that a recessionary
hard landing is inevitable? (Updated January 1, 2001) |
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In Fiscal 2000, which
ended in September, the budget surplus soared to $237 billion, a $113 billion
increase from the previous year. The increase in the surplus is the result
of revenues increasing at twice the rate of expenditures. (Updated December 1, 2000) |
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There is continued reference
to a "soft landing," a slowdown in economic growth sufficient to prevent
inflation without causing unemployment. However, those economists who believe
that recession has been banished may change their opinion in the wake of
recent market turmoil. (Updated November 1, 2000) |
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The 10-year-high level
of gas prices caused angry protest in most of Western Europe. The object
of the protests was the gasoline tax, which in the U.K. amounts to 76.8
percent of the retail price of gasoline, while in the U.S. represents only
24.1 percent of the pump price. (Updated October 1, 2000) |
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Unemployment rates are
at record low levels and there have literally been millions of new jobs
created during the current economic expansion. Unfortunately, low-skilled
workers have not profited to the same extent as others from the expansion.
(Updated August 1, 2000) |
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How can you tell if the
economy's slowing? One way would be to carefully examine a wide variety
of data series, for example, leading indicators, lagging indicators and
so on, using a multitude of quantitative tools. (Updated August 1, 2000) |
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The new budget forecast
for the next 10 years shows an even greater surplus than the previous forecasts
of February 2000- an increase of over $1 trillion. (Updated August 1, 2000) |
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The Federal Reserve has
raised interest rates a total of 6 times and 1.75 percentage points over
the last year in an attempt to bring the economy to a "soft landing." A
soft landing occurs when the economy cools down enough so inflation is not
a problem, but doesn't slow down enough to drive the economy into a recession.
(Updated August 1, 2000) |
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Japan's economy has alternated
between recession and very modest growth. A 2.4 percent increase in the
total output of goods and services for the first quarter of this year follows
six months of decline, including a decrease of 1.6 percent in the previous
quarter. Is this an indication of sustainable recovery or just another turn
in Japan's growth and contraction cycle. (Updated July 1, 2000) |
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New studies show that
the federal tax burden for all but the richest Americans has fallen. The
tax bill for most Americans has declined to less than 10 percent of their
income, perhaps explaining why voters place tax cut proposals near the bottom
of their list of priorities. (Updated May 1, 2000) |
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Twenty years after former
President Reagan's tax cuts, taxes as a percent of GDP will be higher than
during the last five years before Reagan took office. (Updated May 1, 2000) |
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The current economic
expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest expansion ever. There
is some argument over who is responsible for orchestrating it, and the top
candidates include Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, the Federal Reserve, and
even Jimmy Carter. (Updated March 1, 2000) |
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The strength of the national
economy has produced large revenue gains for the states. All 50 states have
budget surpluses, and 39 states have a surplus of at least 5 percent of
their spending. As these surpluses accumulate, states are cutting taxes
and increasing their spending on education and heath care. (Updated February 1, 2000) |
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Congress has just passed
a tax cut bill that calls for a reduction in the capital gains tax. One
of the objectives of this measure is to stimulate savings, investment and
economic growth. (Updated August 1, 1998) |
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For the first time in
30 years a President has submitted a balanced budget to Congress, with more
than half of the budget earmarked for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,
and other entitlement programs, and tax cuts are also a part of the new
budget. (Updated May 19, 1998) |
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Most economists would
sign up to the statement that all economic expansions must end. The question
is when. The average economic expansion in the post World War II era lasts
about 54 months. Our current expansion, which began in 1991, is now 78 months
old. Although this expansion is still not near the record of 106 months
set in 1961-69, it has caused some to argue that recessions may be a thing
of the past. (Updated January 15, 1998) |
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