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Civilian Unemployment Rate
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Civilian Unemployment Rate
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Diagrams/Data
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Diagrams and Data
Explore further current and historical data for the civilian unemployment rate and how it relates to real GDP, the Consumer Price Index, and the money supply (M2) .
Current and Historical Data for the Civilian Unemployment Rate.
Review the current and historical data for the civilian unemployment rate by month at Economagic.com.
Economic Growth Rate (Relative to Same Period Last Year) and the Unemployment Rate
One can see in the diagram below that the business cycle of expansion, peak, contraction, and trough expresses itself clearly and prominently in the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate falls during the growth period of the business cycle, and rises during periods of contraction. The unemployment rate has been rising since the first quarter of 2001, which coincided with the recession that began in March 2001 and which was exacerbated by the events of September 11th. Although economic growth rates have been increasing since 2002, unemployment rates remained stubbornly high through the second quarter of 2003, leading some commentators to refer to this period as a "jobless recovery".
Economagic.com provides a more complete collection of data for the following: Unemployment Rate I Real GDP
CPI Inflation Rate (Relative To Same Period Last Year) and the Unemployment Rate
This diagram clearly illustrates the pattern of inflation and unemployment during the business cycle. During recessions inflation rates fall while unemployment rates rise. In the recovery period immediately following each of the three recessions since 1980, the inflation rate continued to decline, while the trend in unemployment rates reversed from increase to decrease. During the prolonged peak of the business cycle in the 1990's, the growth rate of the CPI (inflation) was modest and steady, while the unemployment rate declined. That period of golden economic performance began slipping away in 2000. Since the 2001 recession the inflation rate has returned to relatively normal levels, while unemployment rates have remained stubbornly high.
Economagic.com provides a more complete collection of data for the following:
Unemployment Rate I Consumer Price Index
M2 Money Supply Growth Rate (Relative To Same Period Last Year) and the Unemployment Rate
Since the money supply is the primary tool of monetary policy, we would expect that expansionary policy (increase in the growth rate of the money supply) would lead to lower unemployment rates, while contractionary policy would lead to higher unemployment rates. We can see in the diagram below that indeed the unemployment rate tends to respond inversely to changes in the money supply. This is particularly evident in the recovery during 1983. Through the second quarter of 2003 the Fed continues to hold an "accommodative stance" toward monetary policy, which means on balance the Fed believes the risks of a slowing economy (e.g., high unemployment rates) still outweigh those of a rapidly growing economy.
Economagic.com provides a more complete collection of data for the following:
Unemployment Rate I Money Supply (M2)©2003 South-Western. All Rights Reserved webmaster | DISCLAIMER
