South-Western EconData -- Real GDP

Explore further current and historical data for the real GDP and how it relates to the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, the unemployment rate, and personal income.

Current and Historical Data for Real GDP
Review the current and historical data for real gross domestic product (GPD) by quarter at Economagic.com.

Economic Growth Rate (Relative to Same Period Last Year) and the Unemployment Rate
One of the lessons of the business cycle is that the unemployment rate and the rate of economic growth tend to be inversely related. This relationship is particularly clear when we look in the diagram at economic data during and after recessions. During a recession unemployment rates rise while real GDP falls. In contrast, you can see that unemployment rates fall while real GDP rises in the period of recovery following each of the four recessions since 1980. As of the second quarter of 2003 the unemployment rate continues to increase, while real GDP is increasing modestly. These mixed economic signals suggest a "jobless" recovery from the recession of 2001.

Economagic.com provides a more complete collection of data for the following:
Unemployment Rate I Real GDP

Real GDP and Personal Income: Annual Percent Change Relative to Same Period Last Year
Recall from the circular flow of a market economy that households receive income from selling resources (land, labor, and capital) to firms. GDP can be measured by adding up all of the payments to households for land, labor, and capital. Thus when real GDP increases, personal income will also increase, and when real GDP decreases, so too will personal income. The recession in 2001 and lingering economic weakness in 2002 had associated with it a slowdown in the rate of growth in personal income. Since that time, personal income has generally increased although at a modest level. Real GDP growth rates seem to be picking up steam, led by real estate activity and increased defense spending.

Economagic.com provides a more complete collection of data for the following:
Personal Income I Real GDP

Real GDP and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators: Annual Percent Change Relative to Same Period Last Year
How well does the Index of Leading Economic Indicators perform in forecasting future economic conditions? As one can see in the diagram, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators generally provides a strong indication of future turning points in the economy. While each of the four recessions since 1980 were anticipated by declines in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, the Index also falsely indicated a recession in the mid-1990s. The pattern of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators falling prior to recessions is clearly revealed in the time period between 2000 and 2002. Currently the Index and Real GDP are both growing on an annual basis, which bodes well for the economic recovery.